Three major Canadian banks expressed optimistic views on the economy, in contrast to the concerns of numerous smaller businesses dealing with the impact of the trade war with the United States. Royal Bank of Canada, Toronto-Dominion Bank, and CIBC released their financial results ahead of the Toronto Stock Exchange opening. With combined assets totaling up to $6 trillion, these banking giants have a broad range of consumer and business debt products, giving them insight into the effects of tariffs.
RBC’s CEO, Dave McKay, highlighted the resilience of the Canadian economy, citing improvements in employment and GDP in the second quarter. TD Bank’s CEO, Raymond Chun, mentioned a potential “super cycle” for investment in Canada, driven by government spending in infrastructure and defense projects. CIBC’s CEO, Harry Culham, expressed confidence in the latter half of 2026 and emphasized the need to monitor the labor market for any weaknesses.
According to a study by Oxford Economics for the Canadian American Business Council, the elimination of the Canada-U.S.-Mexico Agreement could lead to the loss of over 100,000 Canadian jobs. BMO Capital Markets predicted that the latest U.S. tariffs could reduce Canadian growth by half a percentage point, primarily affecting business confidence and investment.
The CEOs of National Bank, Bank of Montreal, and Scotiabank also acknowledged the resilience of Canada’s economy and praised government initiatives to support businesses impacted by tariffs. Despite trade tensions, shares of major Canadian banks on the Toronto Stock Exchange continue to trade near record highs, with the iShares S&P/TSX Capped Energy Index ETF showing significant growth year-to-date.