Health authorities combatting the Ebola crisis in eastern Democratic Republic of Congo are utilizing de-identified mobile phone data to track population movements and pinpoint potential virus spread areas, as per the World Health Organization (WHO) and collaborating researchers.
This innovative strategy, a first in Ebola response efforts, is being employed amidst challenges in containing what the WHO has labeled the fastest-growing Ebola outbreak on record. The outbreak has affected six provinces, with over 6,250 cases and 3,039 fatalities reported since its declaration on May 15, according to the latest government figures.
The current outbreak, the 17th in Congo, is caused by the Bundibugyo Ebola strain, for which there are no approved vaccines or treatments.
Given the escalating spread of the virus, health officials are seeking ways to predict potential outbreak locations and allocate surveillance and response resources efficiently.
Olivier Le Polain, head of epidemiology and analytics for response at the WHO Health Emergencies Programme, emphasized the significance of population movements in outbreaks, particularly in the ongoing crisis. Traditional risk assessments typically focus on outbreak epicenters and assume gradual spread to surrounding regions. By analyzing mobility data, responders can identify risks in areas that may be geographically distant but closely linked through travel patterns.
The data analysis is conducted by the Swedish non-profit Flowminder, using de-identified records generated as mobile phone users connect to telecommunications networks. These records indicate where these connections occurred, enabling researchers to estimate travel patterns among different regions.
Flowminder receives this data at no cost from Vodacom, Congo’s largest telecom operator. The company did not provide a comment when contacted.
Flowminder emphasizes that it only receives aggregated and de-identified records, ensuring individual subscriber information remains inaccessible. The organization aims to estimate how people move, a crucial aspect in predicting the movement of infectious individuals, as explained by Flowminder founder Linus Bengtsson.
The initial analysis by Flowminder in early June focused on the outbreak’s suspected origins in Bunia, Mongbwalu, and Rwampara. Researchers traced travel patterns of individuals who had visited these areas between April 3 and April 23.
As the outbreak expanded beyond its initial center, Flowminder extended its analysis to additional affected regions, identifying likely destinations for people leaving outbreak hotspots.
Kisangani, a key transport hub on the Congo River connecting eastern and western Congo, drew particular attention due to the high risk identified through data analysis. The data indicated a significant risk of the outbreak spreading to Kisangani earlier than anticipated, prompting strengthened operations in the area before the first cases were confirmed.
Recent studies have revealed connections between Kisangani and Kinshasa, as well as settlements along the Congo River and regions near the borders with Central African Republic and South Sudan. This underscores the potential risk of spread to Kinshasa, Congo’s capital, and its largest city.
The WHO continues to caution about the outbreak’s potential spread to Kinshasa and neighboring countries, estimating a 70% probability of a case being detected in Kinshasa by the end of September, based on a modeling exercise conducted in late June.
Efforts are underway to enhance the data coverage by securing agreements with other telecom operators in Congo to provide a more comprehensive and detailed analysis of population movements.
Photo Caption: A school official checks students’ temperatures as they enter a school in Ituri, Congo, on Tuesday, the first day of the new school year.
Photo Caption: People dressed in protective gear unload the coffin containing the remains of a three-year-old, who died of Ebola, for a burial service in Bunia, eastern Congo, on Aug. 18.