The Canadian Real Estate Association (CREA) has adjusted its 2026 home sales forecast downward for the third time this year, with September data indicating a decline in sales nationwide. Initially predicting a slight increase in home sales for 2026, CREA now anticipates a 5.2% decrease in home transactions compared to the previous year. This adjustment follows earlier downward revisions made in April and July due to the surge in oil prices impacting bond yields and subsequently fixed mortgage rates.
Although there was a slight uptick in monthly activity over the summer, CREA’s senior economist Shaun Cathcart highlights the rising oil prices and concerns about potential interest rate hikes by the Bank of Canada as factors likely to deter more potential homebuyers in the remaining months of the year. Cathcart expressed that ongoing uncertainties, including U.S. tariffs and escalating lending rates, have created a cautious atmosphere among buyers, with many reluctant to enter the market in the fall.
According to Real estate company Royal LePage, President and CEO Phil Soper echoed similar sentiments, noting that the fall housing market has been softer than expected as buyers remain wary amid global economic uncertainties. Soper attributed this cautious approach to the volatile nature of Washington’s communication, influencing individuals’ decisions on significant financial commitments like home purchases.
In September, home sales saw a decline, with figures dropping by 2.3% compared to August and 7.7% compared to the same month last year. Additionally, the number of newly listed properties decreased by 1.8% on a month-over-month basis. CREA reports a continuous decline in new supply since September 2025.
The average national home price stood at $666,538, marking a 1.6% decrease from the previous year. Regional markets, particularly in Vancouver and Toronto, experienced weakness in September. Conversely, markets in the Prairies, Quebec, and the East Coast, which had been robust, also started to show signs of cooling off.
Despite the revised forecast, CREA anticipates a rebound in home sales next year. In a positive scenario where the Bank of Canada implements minimal rate adjustments and borrowers gain more clarity on lending rates, CREA projects a 4.4% increase in home sales for 2027.